• Futurist perspectives - Soft Solutions (continued)
• 21st century prognostications
• Rockwell Reality Regression
• BIO-bugs - robots that learn - from Los Alamos Labs & Hasbro Toys
• The wireless web
• eFeedback:
  • Freedom is indeed the driving force for good
  • Kamen Segway - just hype
  • Some Invensys companies doing well

Futurist perspectives - Soft Solutions (continued)

Here are some extracts, selected from my own perspective of "soft solutions”:

Wider gaps - wider conflicts:
The longer-term prospects are for widening conflict between the rich and poor nations, and for increasing destabilization worldwide. A system that routinely rewards the few who are rich and powerful at the expense of the many who are poor and weak, is a system that is programmed for destruction and eventual collapse. This will be the principal event of the twenty-first century.

Authoritarianism vs. fanaticism:
The time may have come to consider a strong, authoritative central regime as essential for preventing barbarism and fanaticism. One can only hope that this will minimize abuse of freedom.

Massive peace movement needed:
Dialog and global education to understand how others think, to respect other cultures, leading the way to healing and closure.

Winning solutions:
Instead of bombing raids, the US and other countries with large inventories and backlogs of unsold food, clothing and other consumer goods could airlift their surplus to needy countries.

Globalization:
A massive process of evolutionary changes - economic, political, cultural and biological - against the common enemies of disease, poverty and ignorance.

Don't call it war:
What we need is a new way to think - the words 'war' and 'crusade' are harmful. 'Crusade' reinforces the idea that this is a religious conflict, which it is not. 'War' is outmoded - wars are supposed to be won or lost, not just endlessly stalemated. We will have to find an effective way to combine hard power (military might) with soft power (persuasiveness and coalition-building) to be successful in this new kind of struggle.

Civilian-based defense:
Instead of placing military police on every commercial airline flight, we must train passengers how to deal with terrorists. We must prepare civilians to deal with violence in everyday situations, to have a sense of confidence in making a mature response to any crisis.

Democratization of all countries:
We must somehow spur democratic governments and equitable economic democracy. Create self-reliant, ecological, electronically linked communities (not states). A transformed United Nations, with increased direct democracy.

Planned positive outcome:
To counter the growing divisions of rich and poor, we must have extensive actions to end poverty and despair, realize human rights for all, improve education and health care, fight global crime and corruption, develop democracy at a global level.

World Future Society: Futurist comments & insights

21st century prognostications

Hard realities bring the recognition that a new society is emerging: new demographics, institutions, ideologies, and problems. Things will be quite different from the society of the late 20th century and different from what most people expect. Much of it will be unprecedented. Most of it is already here, or is rapidly emerging.

Get ready for change! The new century is bringing with it enormous changes in all areas of human consciousness. Significant philosophical, ethical, moral, legal, sociological and spiritual questions must be answered, as we move forward in a new century and millennium.

My latest article on this subject is in the popular webzine spark-online, published on New Years day. I'll appreciate your feedback.

spark-online : 21st century Prognostications

21st century prognostications - on JimPinto.com website

Rockwell reality regression

Chairman & CEO Don Davis says it was the toughest year he has ever seen in his 39 years with the company (he joined in '63, as a sales-trainee). He seems to boast (perhaps to show that he can be tough) that he has "consolidated and closed facilities, realigned administrative functions and reduced the worldwide workforce by 9%". He pushes PLC leadership into the past (the '80's) and singles out Global Manufacturing Solutions as having had significant investment, claiming that Rockwell today is at the forefront of the movement to integrated services and solutions.

While he claims that he has spent "a lot of time talking with customers over the past year" - close associates suggest that Don Davis hardly ever leaves his "ivory tower" and speaks only with his "kissing cousins".

Control Systems generated 80% of revenue; Power Systems about 16%. With about 3% of the total, no one at Rockwell quite seems to know what Electronic Commerce is doing, though Don Davis suggests that it is "well positioned to meet the current and future needs of customers".

At a recent (Sept.'01) meeting of all employees in Mayfield, OH (Control Systems HQ) Sr. VP Steve Eisenbrown bravely invited questions from anyone in the audience. He was asked, "Will Rockwell be sold?" Steve, probably unprepared for this directness, responded spontaneously that the company would be sold within one year, and indeed that all existing management would be "swept away" by the new ownership. One wonders if anyone reported Steve's response to his boss, Keith Nosbusch, or Don Davis at the clock tower in Milwaukee...

At age 61, with no clear successor, Don Davis is tired and ready to sell Rockwell Automation. Here is the explanation of the "one year" - the split into Rockwell Automation and Collins earlier this year included a tax provision that, if anyone buys one of the pieces on or before 1 January 2003, they would be assessed an additional $ 1b. So, while the process is already under way, we can expect acquisition to occur only after that date.

Meantime, to maximize profits and increase the stock price, (and raise the eventual acquisition price) Don Davis is doing little else than cutting expenses. It is interesting that he did not receive a pay increase this year, from $900,000 (plus $34,053 other income), though he did receive an additional 330,000 stock options. Control Systems chief, Keith Nosbusch did get a pay raise from $ 350,000 to $410,000 (plus $37,397 other) plus 120,000 options. Not too bad, for doing some RIFs.

Remember the RIF rules? RIF#1 - liposuction; RIF#2 - amputation; RIF#3 - dismemberment. In my view, Rockwell has already engaged in RIF#2, and hopefully will not proceed to RIF#3 before the company is sold. Indeed, that would reduce the value!

Who will acquire? Only one of the majors can afford a purchase of this size. Invensys is already being sold; Honeywell/Allied and ABB are too busy with their own problems; Siemens (perhaps), Emerson (may be), Tyco or GE (possibly), Groupe Schneider (who knows?), Mitsubishi or Omron (never, the Japanese don't know how to acquire), Eaton or Danaher (if they are brave, or stupid enough). Perhaps Warren Buffet?

Rockwell Reviews FY2001 and expectations for Q1 2002

BIO-bugs - robots that learn -
from Los Alamos Labs & Hasbro Toys

Los Alamos National Laboratory scientist Mark Tilden has created lifelike robotic bugs that use transistors, rather than computers, to control their actions. The result is a hot new toy line from Hasbro's WowWee Toys called BIO-Bugs.

Tilden has basically used a dozen transistors to build a walking bug, changing transistors or circuits to change strategies. For example, you can wire up transistors to make the bug scared of light, scared of other robots. You can make a chicken robot that's scared of everything. By combining simple, elegant routines you end up with large-scale, complex organized behavior.

Based on "biomorphic robotics", Tilden's bugs actually learn and alter their behavior as they interact with the environment. BIObugs have 4 unusual features: they're trainable; they learn - become more efficient the longer they operate; they're animated and can interact with a child; and they can be rebuilt very simply with new behaviors.

BIObugs are designed so that you can open them up and mess with their heads - something every child wants to do. Toy stores are excited about the sales potential - BIObugs were big sellers this Christmas.

Similarly designed robotic vacuum cleaners might appear soon, with new models being unveiled at the New York Toy Fair in February. Some of the new toys will have more interactive capabilities. Children can download new transistor brain patterns from the Internet and build new designs themselves.

News-story: Los Alamos Scientist creates BIO-bug robots

BIObugs sell for about $40 each

Buy bug-building kits online

See BIObug 'Vivisection'

The wireless web

Although there has been some wireless access in places like hotels, airports and coffee shops, new cooperatively run networks are allowing more users to surf in outdoor public areas. These networks are set up by groups that provide Internet access by hooking high-speed digital subscriber line (DSL) or cable modem connections to wireless base stations. The base stations transmit the bandwidth to any nearby computer - typically a laptop or handheld-equipped with an antenna to receive the signal.

MIT Tech-Review: Unwiring the web

eFeedback

"Look at many if not most of those countries where the citizens lack the basic essentials of life. You will find that the ruling structure is one of repression and tyranny, with whatever riches exist being are siphoned for to the benefit of a small privileged elite, leaving the masses to wallow in misery.

"Examples abound. Nigeria and Congo are both rich, nay virtually overflowing in natural resources, and yet the standard of living continues to nosedive. If the populations had enjoyed "American freedoms and the warmth of its culture" these nations would be enjoying the standards of living and quality of life of Norway or Switzerland. For another example, Egypt and South Korea had roughly the same per capita GDP in the mid fifties. Why is South Korea, a country virtually devoid of natural resources, an economic powerhouse, while the economy of Egypt has remained stagnant? Again, compare the political systems for the answer.

"Freedom is not irrelevant to our happy status, it is the driving force that permits us the luxury of taking for granted the ability to have a decent place to live and to put food on our table."

The initial skepticism I had about IT (aka the Segway HT) that was dispelled after seeing the iBOT turned out to be right after all; Segway is a pretty neat toy. But, a revolution in the design of cities? NOT! The only way that the Segway HT is going to revolutionize cities is by coercive government fiat. Kamen as much as admitted to this on Good Morning America when he suggested that "communities" (a euphemism for "local government mandates") could control HT speeds by mandating certain digital keys be used in different areas. If those same "communities" would only make automobiles, trucks, SUVs, motorcycles, bicycles, skateboards, roller skates, scooters, and walking illegal think of what a wonderful world we would have."

"Your commentary regarding Invensys over the last year has been right on the money. However, as a long time employee of Triconex, I would like to point out that not all parts of Invensys are performing poorly. Triconex sales were on target last year and are ahead of target this year. This shows that despite a parent company in distress, a product line that continues to deliver solid solutions for real customer problems will continue to succeed. There are some gems in the Invensys portfolio; someone just needs to dig them out!"

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