The 3 laws of technology

By : Jim Pinto,
San Diego, CA.
USA

The combination of the three technology laws will soon bring startling changes.

Within the next decade many people will have a couple of hundred computers embedded in their clothes, communicating through a "personal-area-network" (PAN), with wireless connection to the Internet.

This article was published in December 2001 by

These three laws are generally accepted as governing the spread of technology:

Moore’s Law:
Formulated by Gordon Moore of Intel in the early 1970s: The processing power of a microchip doubles every 18 months. Corollary: computers become faster - and the price of a given level of computing power halves - every 18 months.
Gilder’s Law:
Proposed by George Gilder, prolific author and prophet of the new technology age: The total bandwidth of communication systems triples every 12 months. New developments seem to confirm that bandwidth availability will continue to expand at a rate that supports Gilder’s Law.
Metcalfe’s Law:
Attributed to Robert Metcalfe, originator of Ethernet and founder of 3COM: The value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes; so, as a network grows, the value of being connected to it grows exponentially, while the cost per user remains the same or even reduces.

Gordon Moore himself predicts that Moore’s Law, as applied to integrated circuits, will no longer be applicable after about 2017 … when IC geometry will be about one atom thick. However, recent technology announcements about 3-D silicon, single-atom and spin transistors gives another 20 years of conventional doublings before the electronics limit is reached.

Inevitably, other technologies, such as bio-chips and nano-technology will come to the forefront to move the equivalent of Moore’s Law inexorably forward.

In the age of the telephone modem, bandwidth seemed limited. But, already DSL and cable modems have extended everyday Internet communications to 500 Kbps, and the upper limits for optical media broadband communications is clearly following Gilder’s Law. At the low end, third-generation (3G) cell-phone technology is just now being introduced, already allowing wireless data interchange at baud-rates at least equivalent to DSL.

As more and more "nodes" become connected - products, equipment, people, organizations - Metcalfe’s Law comes into play. The effectiveness and value of the Internet continues to increase exponentially.

The three laws work together

The combination of the three technology laws will soon bring startling changes. Within the next decade many people will have a couple of hundred computers embedded in their clothes, communicating through a "personal-area-network" (PAN), with wireless connection to the Internet.

Personal intelligence and local effectiveness will be enhanced significantly through effortless connection to the vast resources of the Internet.

In a similar timeframe in the industrial automation business, we should expect that virtually all industrial I/O products and processes will have significantly expanded embedded intelligence and connectivity.

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