A century and a half ago mathematicians noticed that when large samples of different things were measured, results tended to cluster around an average. When plotted on a chart, the data took the shape of a bell. This "bell curve" defined normal statistical distribution, and it became a fundamental law of natural science, a cornerstone of statistics.

Recently, several economic and social phenomena seem to be following a different pattern. Instead of being high in the center and low on the sides, this new distribution is "bi-modal", low in the center and high on the sides. So, it's called "the well curve". And it seems to be popping up everywhere recently. There are lots of examples.

• Organization size: For a variety of reasons, big companies are growing bigger (witness the number of mergers) and the number of small businesses is multiplying. But there are fewer midsize companies.
• Geopolitics: The past decade has seen the rise of huge multinational federations (NAFTA, the European Union, etc.) At the same time, small independent states and secessionist movements are also multiplying. And the mid-sized countries, like Italy and Spain, are losing population, power and status.
• Consumer culture: Tiny screens (on cell-phones, PDAs and now wrist-PDAs) are multiplying, while large-screen TVs are also proliferating. Mid-sized seems to be going out of style.
• Retail: Wal-Mart has become the largest company in the Fortune 500, and big retail chains are expanding. At the same time, the number of small, specialty boutiques is soaring. But mid-sized companies are struggling.
• Drooping middle class: The Federal Reserve Board's latest analysis of family finances shows that, in the past decade, American incomes were up across the board. But when the population is divided into five equal segments, a well curve emerges - there was faster growth at the top and bottom, with less growth in the middle.
• School Grades: In the last decade, the percentage of students scoring in the highest ranges increased, the percentage scoring at the bottom level increased, but the number with mid-scores dropped.
• Purchasing patterns: The Wall Street Journal noted last year, "consumers are flocking to the most expensive products and the cheapest products, fleeing the middle ground."

Theorists believe that conditions deviate from the bell curve only during periods of transition. The chaos of the new age, the realization of Alvin Toffler's Future Shock, may be reflected by the inversion of all the old logic. The statistician’s "standard deviation" may not be standard after all.

The effects of the well curve are becoming more evident in everyday life. The two ends of the spectrum are gaining steadily, while the mid-level deteriorates.

The push for cheap is providing more and more benefits for the low end of society: 99c hamburgers and tacos, low-cost polyester clothes, pay-less shoes, big-lot stores, dollar watches and calculators, the list is endless.

At the same time, the middle class is under attack, their values being abandoned. Once respectable mid-level jobs are transferred offshore to save cost. As breadwinners become jobless, their middle-class homes become run down and dilapidated. The bell curve implies that the majority, the middle segment, is somewhat satisfied. But the well curve means that this is inverted completely for the majority. And this is bringing social unrest, and a lot of middle-class dissatisfaction.

At the same time, with the decline of interest rates, the still-employed middle-class pushes inexorably upwards. With low interest rates, home construction and remodeling is growing to record levels. Drive anywhere around San Diego to witness the mushrooming of half-million-dollar homes, the supposedly “low-end”. And drive a little more to note the proliferation of palaces. This year’s San Diego Tour d’Elegance was in Chula Vista, demonstrating the attainable luxury of 6,000 sq. ft., $3 million lakeside residences. And those were nested midst the ever-expanding new home construction, mostly million-dollar packages on postage-stamp lots. In the midst of a struggling economy, is this the middle-class?

And the high end continues to thrive with bigger salaries, multi-million dollar bonuses, golden parachutes and princely pension packages. If you think Enron and WorldCom palaces were attained only by shady accounting in a few isolated instances, take a drive to Rancho Santa Fe to count the overflowing community of 15,000 sq. ft. homes, built next to crowded golf courses with $ 100,000 membership fees. The high end is thriving, and getting even higher.

Hey, see if this passes your own acid test by applying it to the daily news. The "well curve" starts to make sense."